NEWSLETTER ISSUE #10

Merchant Ship Collective | The Launch Dock
Where tools meet purpose — and small businesses learn what really shapes their world.

Anticipate Changes

Public–Private Partnerships often look permanent from the outside. Once a major corporation embeds itself into a government system, it can feel like the entire landscape has closed around small businesses. The truth is more complex. PPPs follow a recognizable rhythm: they emerge, expand, strain, decline, and eventually get replaced.

Understanding this cycle gives small businesses the power to anticipate changes long before they hit the public eye — and long before opportunities disappear.

This issue breaks down the life cycle of a PPP in a way the public rarely sees, showing exactly where small businesses lose ground, where they regain it, and how timing becomes a strategic advantage.

Phase 1: The Birth — Crisis Creates the Opening

Every PPP begins with urgency. A crisis, a gap, or a sudden need becomes the justification for bringing in private support. Government officials often claim they lack the infrastructure to respond quickly, and large vendors step in offering speed, modernization, and streamlined services.

These partnerships almost always begin under the promise of being temporary. Yet their temporary nature rarely holds. Once a private entity enters a public system, the foundation for long-term influence is laid.

During this phase, small businesses usually have the least visibility and the least influence. The decisions forming the partnership are often made before local businesses even hear about them.

Phase 2: The Expansion — The System Locks In

After the initial launch, the private partner deepens its role. The company introduces its own software, tools, and data systems, gradually becoming the central infrastructure that public agencies rely on. Over time, the government becomes dependent on the vendor — not only for daily operations but for decision-making and continuity.

Procurement requirements, technical standards, and administrative processes begin to reflect the needs of the private partner rather than the needs of the community. This is when small businesses begin noticing that access is shrinking, requirements are shifting, and the marketplace no longer feels open or predictable.

Phase 3: The Strain — Cracks Begin to Show

No partnership scales perfectly forever. As a PPP expands, it eventually encounters pressure points. Complaints increase. Response times slow. Public frustration rises. Staff within the agency begin to voice concerns about losing internal control. The cost of maintaining the partnership grows, and the promised “efficiency” becomes harder to defend.

This is the first moment in the cycle where small businesses regain leverage. Agencies begin searching for relief — supplemental vendors, specialized help, and community voices that speak to unmet needs. Small businesses that make themselves visible now gain a foothold that didn’t exist before.

Phase 4: The Decline — Public Pressure Forces Accountability

As failures become public, the PPP loses political protection. Leaders begin distancing themselves from the vendor. Reports surface. Oversight increases. Renewal discussions become tense. The narrative shifts from praise to concern.

This is where momentum shifts back toward local providers. Government officials begin looking for alternatives but often lack internal capacity. They are open to solutions from businesses they previously overlooked. The door that once felt sealed begins to crack open.

Small businesses with strong visibility and community credibility often make significant gains during this period. Their advantage lies not in size, but in trust.

Phase 5: The Replacement — The Cycle Resets

No PPP lasts forever. Eventually, contracts expire, systems grow outdated, or political winds shift enough to demand a new approach. When this happens, partnerships are renegotiated, restructured, or replaced entirely. Sometimes the government breaks the project into smaller components. Sometimes a new vendor steps in. Sometimes work returns in-house.

For small businesses, this is the most important window of opportunity. Government agencies suddenly need new ideas, flexible solutions, and credible local providers. The renewal or replacement moment is the single greatest chance for small businesses to win back space — but only if they recognized the earlier phases.

What the Cycle Means for Small Businesses

The most important strategic insight for small businesses is this:
PPPs are not permanent. They are predictable.

Small businesses regain power not by fighting PPPs directly, but by understanding when PPPs rise, when they falter, and when they lose dominance. The key is to move at the right time.

During the birth phase, awareness is essential.
During expansion, documentation and observation matter.
During strain, visibility and communication create early openings.
During decline, advocacy becomes highly effective.
During replacement, competition becomes possible again.

Once small businesses recognize this rhythm, they stop feeling blindsided and start operating with intention.

The Single Takeaway

PPPs are not a closed door.
They are a cycle — one that always returns to a moment where small businesses can take a stand or rise again.

Call to Action

In the next issue — Newsletter #11 — we dive into how PPPs grow during election years, how federal agencies shift priorities depending on political leadership, and what small businesses can expect in a presidential cycle where contracting can swing dramatically in a single year.

In solidarity,

Lyndsay LaBrier
The Merchant Ship Collective

References

Government Accountability Office. (2023). Federal contracting: Lessons learned from emergency response. https://www.gao.gov
U.S. Department of Homeland Security. (2022). Critical infrastructure partnerships report. https://www.dhs.gov